Wednesday, November 25, 2009

Analyzing NLHE:TAP Concept 41

From No Limit Hold 'em: Theory and Practice by David Sklansky and Ed Miller.

Concept No. 41: When holding a mediocre hand, usually bet enough (but not more) so that a raise means you are almost certainly beaten.

I don't like this one. It falls into the category of advice that stems from the idea that you should avoid putting yourself in a position of having to make a difficult decision. As I've already discussed twice before in this series of concept analyses, I don't buy into this idea. I don't think that you can generally improve your EV by maneuvering like this. However, I have heard that Chris Ferguson espouses this idea in The Full Tilt Poker Strategy Guide, which makes me worry that I might be wrong. A project I'd like to take on when I'm done with these concept analyses is to try to disprove this idea in general (or prove it, as the case may be). I'll have to take a look at what "Jesus" has to say, since he really knows what he's talking about when it comes to game theory.

1 comment:

Dave said...

I like this one. In a typical SoCal game I think it keeps a player out of the deep water. I'm assuming by bet "enough" they don't mean a trip to crazytown, but a bet where bottom pair or two over cards aren't inclined to float.

I like the bet option better than either checking or betting so little that I can't if they have me beat, or are on a draw, or they have middle pair...

Either way, if called, it's time to slow it down and see what happens on the next street.