Rio WSOP Freeroll Update

As I described in my last post, I'm considering trying to qualify for the freeroll WSOP satellite tournament at the Rio by playing 80 hours in February. The qualifiers from January played their tournament Sunday night. There were 18 qualifiers, 16 of whom showed up for the freeroll. I recognized about half of them, and they were all decent players, as expected.

There are a few new important factors for me to consider. First is that 2nd-10th place were also paid, a total of just under $3000. So the total value of the tournament is now about $12,000. Unfortunately, word has gotten out about this promotion, and a lot more players will probably be qualifying in February. In my previous post, I had guessed that there would be 24 players - now I think there will be over 35. I'll guess 40. Qualification is now worth only about $400 to me (previously approximated at $560).

Another problem is that the influx of new players who are serious about poker has made the Rio games much, much tougher than usual. About 80% of my opponents the past few days have been competent professional players. I'm used to maybe 40%. Aside from the promotion, continuing to play in these games would be an example of terrible game selection, .

On the other hand, I have already racked up about 43 hours this month, so I only have 37 more to go in the span of 15 days. If it weren't for this promotion, I would probably play at the Rio 0-10 more hours this month, so I would have to play about 32 extra hours there to qualify. Since qualifying is worth $400 to me, this amounts to $12.50 an hour.

Would my win rate at the Mirage (or some other casino) be at least $12.50/hour more than what I expect to win in the very tough games at the Rio? This seems very likely. If that's the case, it no longer makes much sense for me to pursue the goal of playing 80 hours. On the other hand... my girlfriend is coming to town this weekend and I could play 4-8 limit with her at the Rio and avoid the sharks. The 4-8 Rio game is certainly not $12.50/hour worse than any other 4-8 game in town. I don't know what to do.