tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14966315.post3922575676593482828..comments2023-04-27T06:00:45.284-04:00Comments on Caught Up in the Craze: Closer Analysis of Folding into the MoneyKeithhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/05447889236819454584noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14966315.post-84733063451018834652013-03-08T11:38:38.810-05:002013-03-08T11:38:38.810-05:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.iphone appshttp://www.alliapps.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14966315.post-55548027093374777562013-02-09T00:56:06.263-05:002013-02-09T00:56:06.263-05:00Thanks, Rick. These truly are wild guesses, althou...Thanks, Rick. These truly are wild guesses, although I did put a few minutes of thought into it. I will take your opinion into account tomorrow when I try the tournament again. <br /><br />After I published the post, I realized that it would have been useful to have more than one entry for each row to represent different percentiles -- or at least a second row to indicate the 95%ile, which might be more relevant than the "average" that I was guessing at. Without the full distribution (or an approximation to it), I can't calculate the EV of the fold strategy. Obviously, I neglected to update it. Frankly, I have some doubts in my ability to put all this to good use.<br /><br />I do have some good raw data to include from this past Sunday, as I recorded all relevant info at the end of each round after the first break. Believe it or not, I got "bubble money" again. This time, what went wrong was a lack of discipline, as I lost patience and played hands when I could easily have folded into the money. Perhaps this was also a symptom of being overconfident, as you suggest, because I thought I could afford to lose a few more chips and still make the money by adopting the fold strategy later. Oh well.Keithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05447889236819454584noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14966315.post-28089348310365966422013-02-09T00:22:49.839-05:002013-02-09T00:22:49.839-05:00These last two posts are great, really excellently...These last two posts are great, really excellently written and really interesting. My only quibble would be that in this post it doesn't seem like you've fully learned the lesson from your last post, namely that it takes a lot longer for people to get knocked out than one might expect. I think your percentages of people knocked out here are all about double what I would say.<br />Rick<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com